SPECIALS Food and Shops
Price of bread
june
2007
Shall A
Joseph Be Found In Their Midst? R
A couple of Saturdays ago,
I think, the Meteorological Department took out a full page advertisement in
the Saturday Nation. In the advertisement, they made the pronouncement that
whereas some areas of the country had experienced sufficient rains this past
rainy season, in many other places, rainfall fell short of expectations. It
went on to project what the rainfall patterns over the rest of the year would
be like and then to predict where there would be a good harvest and where the
harvest would not be good.
It concluded on a hopeful
note, however, by assuring us that it would be possible to make up for food
shortages in some parts of the country by moving surplusses from other parts
of the country.
I particularly remember
the assurance because it left me hopeful. (I'm the kind of person who
remembers impressions long after I've forgotten the facts.)
It was therefore curious
to me to read an article in the paper last week in which the Food and
Agricultural Organisation (FAO) was predicting that there would be famine in
Kenya by the end of the year and that therefore the government should be
setting aside funds to purchase food from the international marketplace
because there would not be adequate internal supply.
So I asked someone who is
a farmer what she thought about this two seemingly conflicting points of view.
I asked her about the last harvest in particular and what her experience had
been. She told me that in central province, large parts of the rift valley and
even some parts of eastern, the harvest has been very decent. So decent in
fact, that the government is paying 700 to 900 Ksh per bag of maize whereas
the prices a couple of years ago had be upward of 1100 Ksh. So there's
definitely food going into the government granaries as we speak.
I do hope we have the
foresight to store it well and distribute it prudently when the time comes.
I can't help but be
reminded of that article about the time that there was famine in parts of
Zambia some years ago. There was a good harvest in other parts, but when
Zambia asked for international assistance to help them ferry food from the
parts of the country where food was in plenty to the parts of the country
where it was scarce, they were informed that international assistance could
not be administered in that way. Apparently, international food aid was only
available to them if they were to bring in food from outside of Zambia.
So in the end they
received food assistance which amounted to maize shipped all the way from the
US and it came into their country in such bulk that it distorted their food
market so badly that Zambian farmers could not get a decent price for their
maize and they ended up in a far worse place than they had been at the
beginning of that crisis.
I do hope we know better
now, as Kenyans. It does seem as though we are in a position to know better.
We
wait, we see.R
Pork price rises fuel China inflation fear
Richard McGregor in Beijing and Jamil Anderlini in
Hong Kong
A disease killing millions of pigs in China has sharply lifted the price of
pork, the country’s staple meat, fuelling fears about inflation and prompting
a call from the top leadership for increased production of the meat.
Wen Jiabao, premier, provided confirmation of the seriousness of the crisis
with a weekend visit to a market in Shaanxi province, where he said farmers
should help “resolve the problem” of providing meat for 1.3bn people.
Pork prices have risen by as much as 30 per cent in Chinese cities over the
last week. According to the agriculture ministry, wholesale prices for pigs
have gone up even more, rising 71.3 per cent since April.
China’s 500m pigs are the country’s most important source of affordable meat,
and any sustained interruption in supply would be a major political problem
for the government.
While the price of feed, such as corn, has risen, the main culprit is an
epidemic of a mysterious illness known as ‘blue ear’ disease, as well as the
more common foot-and-mouth affliction.
“I have heard it has killed as many as 20m hogs,” said an industry executive
on Monday.
The government has not issued any estimate of how many pigs have been struck
down by disease, and in any case, China’s size and the number of small
producers make it difficult to quickly tabulate reliable figures.
But the impact of the shortage of pork is apparent in many areas, from sausage
makers switching meats, to rising offal prices, and attempts by Hong Kong to
import meat from South America.
China cannot easily find competitively priced pork to replace the shortfall at
home, because of its own health-related restrictions on imports from South
America, where prices are relatively low. US and European pork is relatively
expensive.
The government has a “strategic pork reserve”, established in the late
nineties, including both frozen stocks and access to pig farms, which could
provide a buffer.
“We are considering releasing some of these reserves into the market in
certain targeted areas in order to reduce soaring prices,” said Li Xizhen of
the Ministry of Commerce.
“We will not be giving free meat to people, but will sell pork and use market
mechanisms to bring down volatility.”
Mr Wen, in his visit to the market, said the government “is going all out to
ensure the supply of pork and keep it affordable.”
Soaring pork prices are also expected to add to inflation, already under
pressure from rising food prices in other areas.
“The surge in pork prices will likely push year-on-year CPI inflation to above
4 per cent very soon,” said Hong Liang, of Goldman Sachs, in Hong Kong, in a
research note.
“Meat constitutes about 7 per cent of the CPI basket, and its price pressures
are likely to spread to eggs, fish and other food products.”
Although 4 per cent is above the central bank’s unofficial “tolerance rate” of
three, core inflation remains low.
|
June 15th, 2007
sokwanele
I am involved in the
Dry Food business in Zimbabwe and we source and supply various commodities
from protein based products to cereals.
At this time of year,
we get this in to stock as the demand increases as domestic maize supplies
diminish particularly in the rural areas.
In attempting to buy
large quantities of Kapenta (Dried Fish) and also nuts, I found that
stocks were all but non existent.
I was told that the
Government is paying cash (notes) to the suppliers with the word that they
wish to buy everything.
We have elections
coming up early next year and they will occur at a time when the food
deficit will be at its worst. In the past, they have used maize and maize
meal to lure voters by placing stock in the vicinity of polling stations
added to which is word that they will get food if they vote the right way.
Each polling station (mostly
in schools) counts the vote right there and therefore the authorities can
determine just how the local population chose their candidate.
I have no doubt that
as Maize is in desperately short supply this year, this type of food will
be used to cheat the system once more.
SPECIALS |
Famine